The S&P 500 finished the first half of 2025 up just 5%, NASDAQ the same, the Dow a little less…the Russell 2000 saw a modest decline. On average, equity markets have risen 9-10% annually so 5% for half a year seems right in line…and yet, it was hardly slow steady progress to that gain. After rising slightly at the start of the year, the equity markets began drifting steadily lower and then plunged in reaction to Trump’s ‘liberation day’ proclamation of much higher than expected tariffs. Down 20% in just a few months. Then surprisingly recovering completely as the TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out on the draconian tariff proposals) notion spread, eventually rising over 30% from its early April low. A gradual 5% increase? Hardly. It was nervewracking for all, even the professionals….

One of the rewards that I get from writing these ‘Random Walk’ musings is getting feedback from readers. The last time I had your attention, one of the several of you with more experience and greater knowledge pointed out that the surprising market strength that I was discussing owed a lot to the decline in value of the dollar…a smart insight that I had overlooked…

I imagine that people who aren’t fans of President Trump or Elon Musk might have enjoyed the mudslinging texting spectacle that we were all treated to on Thursday. The bromance that just the week before appeared to be durable, strong, and ongoing suddenly fractured spectacularly. While I am a fan of neither man, I did not take any pleasure in the outrageous verbal bashing which surely included both falsehoods and hyperbole. It might have been funny were it not so alarming and a national embarrassment…two really wealthy men with great power creating a public spectacle from which nobody benefits…

I wish I had something new or particularly insightful to say today but the more things change, the more they remain the same. Tariff pauses, new tariff threats, the only constant is the inconsistency and unpredictability of trade policy. Through it all, somehow, the markets have remained surprisingly resilient. Investor confusion, however, seems evident - the markets open down meaningfully, then slowly climb back up as the day unfolds...and the next day, the market sports ever better gains as the day unfolds only to fade in the last hour to close flat. In surveys, investor sentiment remains negative. On the other hand, at the recent CNBC hosted CEO Summit, CEO's seemed relatively unfazed by all the drama and mainly positive on their prospects…

I went into the local hardware store earlier this week to buy a metal bracket to hang a garden hose. While waiting in line, I turned the bracket over to check the price. Instead, what I found was familiar - a ‘Made in China’ label. No tariff problem for me. Then I went back to work – much more pleasant lately.  Markets had rebounded from recent steep declines…the trade war and a potential recession clearly not an investor concern. Life appears to be carrying on…for the moment, anyway…

The last time we found ourselves together in this space, the subject line conveyed a simple message – ‘Too late to sell’. It was true…and good advice. Staying invested was rewarded. The market has reversed course, regaining about half the decline from its peak. And yet, investing in the markets these days remains a precarious endeavor….